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The Coalition is pinning its hopes of economic recovery on cheap gas, but a new study says that is not workable and likely to fail. Photograph: Dazman/Getty Images/iStockphoto

Morning mail: gas-led recovery 'overstated', Trump rages against vote, Botticelli mystery

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The Coalition is pinning its hopes of economic recovery on cheap gas, but a new study says that is not workable and likely to fail. Photograph: Dazman/Getty Images/iStockphoto

Monday: Grattan Institute study finds Coalition’s plan to return to ‘good old days’ of cheap gas is destined to fail. Plus: a missing renaissance masterpiece

Good morning, this is Imogen Dewey bringing you the main stories and must-reads on Monday 16 November.

Top stories

The benefits of the Coalition’s “gas-led recovery” have been overstated and declining usage is inevitable, a new report says. Analysis by the Grattan Institute warns “the good old days” of low gas prices are long gone, making its role as “transition fuel” unfeasible. The report suggests even if gas use continues for several decades, there’s clear evidence it will shrink for both economic and environmental reasons – challenging claims by Scott Morrison and energy minister Angus Taylor that extracting and using more of the fossil fuel will be central to the economic recovery from recession. The government rejected the analysis, a spokesperson for Taylor calling the assessment “narrow [and] oversimplified”.

On Sunday morning, Donald Trump tweeted that Joe Biden “won”. But it wasn’t the formal concession of the presidential election he has so far refused to give, merely an opening to a recycled melange of the baseless voter fraud claims he continues to push. An anonymous White House official said the tweet “may very well” represent the start of some sort of Trump concession, but the president seemed to disagree, tweeting shortly afterwards: “This was a RIGGED ELECTION!” Mainstream experts and analysts agree it was not. The confusion is filtering down: thousands of Trump supporters gathered restively to express their feelings in Washington DC, even as the US confirmed 160,000 new coronavirus cases. Over in the Democrats’ camp, Georgia Senate candidates say runoff elections will be “decisive for America’s future – but the White House win has done little to mend party fractures, leaving the left on a collision course with the moderates.

Young and previously healthy people with ‘long Covid’ are showing signs of damage to multiple organs months after infection. The new findings are a step towards developing treatments for some of the strange and extensive symptoms, which include fatigue, brain fog, breathlessness and pain. As of yesterday, Victoria had recorded 16 days with no new local coronavirus infections, and South Australia’s chief public heath officer says importation from quarantine hotels is currently the country’s highest Covid risk, after a worker infected three family members. But with Scott Morrison declaring alternatives to hotel quarantine unsafe (despite saying in October he wanted to develop “innovative” alternatives), 36,500 Australians overseas now face further delays in getting home. International student have to wait even longer, much to the despair of local universities – though not foreign investors or actors, who Greg Hunt has confirmed will get special approval to jump the queue.

Australia

Anne Hollonds points out kids don’t exist on their own. What happens to their families and communities affects them. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

New children’s commissioner Anne Hollonds says her national plan will focus on measurable accountabilities, taking its cues from the Closing the Gap strategy. She wants the policy to be elevated to cabinet level, and the same kind of national coordination as the pandemic response.

Aged care residents are up to twice as likely to suffer from serious injuries in a for-profit home as in a government-run one, a study released on Sunday by the royal commission investigating the sector has found.

An expert whose work helped trigger the explosive war crimes inquiry says details in its imminent report will leave the Australian Defence Force with “no choice” other than to fundamentally change special forces’ culture. The current environment led some to believe rules did not apply to them, Dr Samantha Crompvoets says.

Firefighters battling a massive month-old bushfire on Queensland’s Fraser Island, believed to have been started by campers, are preparing to defend two townships, as South Australia also faces extreme fire risk.

The world

Alexander Litvinenko’s widow, Marina, has submitted a claim against Russia seeking €3.5m (£5.68m) in compensation. A public inquiry concluded his 2006 murder by radiation poisoning in London was probably ordered by Vladimir Putin.

Thousands of Belarusians have protested against the death in police custody of a military veteran and children’s art teacher arrested for his opposition to authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

Egyptian antiquities officials have announced the discovery of at least 100 ancient coffins, some with mummies inside, and about 40 gilded statues in a vast Pharaonic necropolis south of Cairo.

Amazon has been ridiculed on Twitter for an error “reunifying Ireland”, after the tech firm told a Northern Ireland resident who wanted to watch rugby that he didn’t live in the UK. Northern Ireland’s justice minister joked that Amazon had caused an “international incident” with its customer service responses.

The killing of a rare “spirit” moose in Canada has left residents of a northern Ontario community “outraged and sad” and prompted one First Nations man to offer a reward to anyone who can help officials apprehend the suspected poachers.

The leader of the Tigray region of Ethiopia has claimed responsibility for rocket strikes on the airport in neighbouring Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, in a move that has increased fears of a wider conflict in the Horn of Africa.

Sandro Botticelli’s Madonna and Child (circa 1470), has features in common with the missing masterpiece of 1485. Photograph: Andrew W. Mellon Collection

It’s a masterpiece of the Italian Renaissance depicting one of the most celebrated images in civilisation. Reportedly once owned by Imelda Marcos, Madonna and Child (1485), from the studio of Sandro Botticelli, was valued at $10m when it was the subject of a lengthy court case to prove ownership. But this was merely another twist in a story with some truly startling ones. Six years on from when the case was finally resolved, the purported co-owner of the company awarded the painting has no idea what happened to it.

“Kids, don’t believe anyone who tells you age is just a number,” writes Elizabeth Quinn, musing on how working from home has made her descent into decrepitude that much harder to avoid. “It’s furrows and jowls that don’t belong to you but to some unrecognisable future version of you that you never actually expected to meet.” Confronted by her reflection at every turn, she decided to arm herself with expensive beauty products – and one day saw something quite different.

The serpentine, socially distanced queue in Melbourne’s parks isn’t for the hipster food trucks but the one toilet. “It’s fortunate we have to wear masks, as they hide the pained wincing,” writes Claudia Hooper. “We’ve made it outside but can the bladders contend with this? While some parks have had the foresight to set up portable toilets, most councils haven’t bothered to keep up with the new demand. If you have to spend more time listening to a disembodied robo voice saying ‘your maximum use time is 10 minutes’ than lounging with friends, is it worth it or will we revert straight back to the pub?”

Sport

Lewis Hamilton admitted he was in tears as the enormity of his achievement hit him: “Very rarely do I lose control of my emotions. I just couldn’t believe it.” Photograph: Joe Portlock - Formula 1/Formula 1/Getty Images

Lewis Hamilton claimed the 2020 Formula One world championship with a remarkable win and has been acknowledged as the era’s best driver, his tally now matching Michael Schumacher’s record. He told press he hopes his success as a black man in an almost exclusively white sport will inspire kids everywhere.

Argentina’s stunning upset of the All Blacks means the Wallabies have a shot at lifting the Tri-Nations trophy, writes Bret Harris – if they can eradicate a major flaw in their game.

A controversial no contest ruling has denied Australian Andrew Moloney the WBA super flyweight title and sent the boxing world into meltdown.

Media roundup

Government backbenchers are calling for childcare costs to be tax deductible for some families, reports the Age. Smartphone trading by mum and dad investors has surged to record levels, reports the Brisbane Times. And according to the Herald Sun, every big tennis tournament of the summer is moving to Victoria.

Coming up

The trial continues in Melbourne in the contempt case over George Pell suppression breaches involving a number of journalists and media organisations.

Hearings begin in the robodebt class action.

And if you’ve read this far …

Pigeon racing is making a comeback, and New Kim is its new queen. Photograph: Francisco Seco/AP

One Belgian racing pigeon has beaten another Belgian racing pigeon for the record price set at auction. After a frantic final 30 minutes, bids for two-year-old New Kim hit €1.6m ($2.6m). “The only thing I can see is we are in total shock,” said Kurt Van de Wouwer, whose family bred her. Male pigeons (such as previous record-holder Armando) usually fetch higher prices for breeding reasons, but Chinese enthusiasm for long-distance pigeon racing seems to be driving prices up across the board.

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